Friday, October 25, 2019

Asteroid arriving today?

What is the chance of an asteroid hitting earth today?


The weekend starting Friday 25 October 2019, the 700m diameter asteroid 1998 HL1 zooms past Earth at over 40,000kph - there was never a doubt that it would miss this time round, passing 16 times further away than the moon.

HL1 actually visits regularly and has been seen 408 times since it was discovered 21 years ago and orbits the sun every 508 days. It will come even closer in 2140.

Another little number the size of a school bus zooms past on 22 September 2020.


But asteroids don't always travel alone - could a pack of asteroids ravish earth?


Just a week ago, Friday 18 October 2019, five asteroids approached earth, all on close approach trajectories, the fastest traveling at over 85,000kph. This pack was first spotted just a month ago. That's the scary part of this story... 

00:53 UTC, 2019 TE2 is about 25-50m diameter but passed by at a mere 36,000kph - that would still cause quite a splash if it hit, but is at the very small end of what we need to worry about. Small meteoroids are likely break up and/or burn up before reaching the ground, with mostly only small fragmental meteorites or meteroic dust being found.  Most so-called shooting stars are small meteors that don't reach the ground intact. Many of them actually are shed by comets.

06:25 UTC, 2019 TW6 (discovered October 6) was slightly smaller and slower than TE2...

07:37 UTC, 2019 TP5 (discovered October 7) was slightly larger and considerably faster, and made the closet approach at arund 3 million kms - almost 8 times further away than the moon.

12:53 UTC, 2019 TA1 (discovered October 3) was around the same diameter as TE2 but slower...

14:44 UTC, 2019 TM5 (discovered October 6) was around twice the apparent size as TE2 and by far the fastest!

But the the warning we had for these was around a month - later for the smaller ones or faster ones. These are all Apollo type asteroids whose strongly elliptic orbits take them near the sun at perihelion and pass through or near earth's orbit on the way to their aphelion.

Unfortunately for smaller asteroids still, including ones that hit earth  or explode in the atmosphere, we may have less than a day's notice.  It is rare to detect an asteroid like this, but Richard Kowalski has detected three - but only about 20 hours ahead of time, once it is not much further away than the moon.

But many asteroids have hit the earth, including some with catastrophic results - even extinction events. And smaller asteroids can have significant regional and climatic effects - and even near misses can be very disruptive - and we are expecting some biggies in the next 60 years.

There are many near misses, as well as as apparent past and likely future non-misses. NASA predicts Apophis will pass by in 2029 only 31,200km away (noting that geosynchronous orbit is at an altitude of 35,786km). 2019 SU3 is scheduled to revisit in 2084 and approaching within 10,000km (noting that GPS satellites operate at 20,000km). These can be expected to cause some disruption.

On the other hand, it is pretty certain that one of these significant asteroids will eventually hit Earth. And there are a lot out there.

JPL/NASA have a great animation showing all the asteroids discovered, images showing the particles emitted by asteroid Bennu, as well as a page on 243 Ida(and much much more):
Here is NASA's animation of a segment of the known asteroids in the main band (orange) between Mars (red) and Jupiter (green) as well as the known Near Earth Objects (cyan) - around 40 are discovered every day, but the animation is a little out-of-date (shows the state of play, 18000 NEOs as of early 2018 – over 20000 now).
Animation depicts a mapping of the positions of known near-Earth objects






















My Paradisi Lost stories

Encounters with asteroids, exploited, benign and catastrophically dangerous feature in the Paradisi Chronicles stories, including my Casindra Lost subseries, which also feature genetic engineering, an emergent AI 'Al' and a captain who is reluctantly crewed with him on a rather long journey to another galaxy - just the two of them, and some cats... There's another AI, 'Alice' that emerges more gradually in the Moraturi arc. The Paradisi colonization aims to preserve the pristine ecosystems of New Eden, restrict mining to the other planets and asteroids of the system, and genetically modify people to suit the ecosystem rather than overwhelm it with introduced species: https://paradisichronicles.wordpress.com/

Casindra Lost
Kindle ebook (mobi) edition ASIN: B07ZB3VCW9 — tiny.cc/AmazonCL
Kindle paperback edition ISBN-13: 978-1696380911 justified Iowan OS
Kindle enlarged print edn ISBN-13: 978-1708810108 justified Times NR 16
Kindle large print edition ISBN-13: 978-1708299453 ragged Trebuchet 18

Moraturi Lost
Kindle ebook (mobi) edition ASIN: B0834Z8PP8 – tiny.cc/AmazonML
Kindle paperback edition ISBN-13: 978-1679850080 justified Iowan OS 

Moraturi Ring
Kindle ebook (mobi) edition ASIN: B087PJY7G3 – tiny.cc/AmazonMR
Kindle paperback edition ISBN-13: 979-8640426106 justified Iowan OS 

Author/Series pages and Awards

Friday, October 18, 2019

Science as Religion


What is science?


Empiricism


The word science actually means knowledge and refers to our understanding of our world, our universe. A closely related word is ontology which more literally means the study or understanding or logic of what is - but this has a closer relationship to what an individual understands about their world, including the internal and external aspects of our physical environment as we experience it, including the linguistic, social, cultural and ethical aspects.

The scientific method is often described as being an experimental method, or more formally empiricism. But there is also a flipside to this which is theory.


So how does this work?

Basically we are trying to understand the world, whether we are a scientist doing empirical science or an infant learning language and ontology. This means we collect data (who, what, when, where) and seek to develop explanations (why and how). These are all good questions to ask, and it is the last two in particular that are what scientists and infants ask incessantly.

The explanations (theories) usually involve assumptions (hypotheses) about things we don't directly know, rules (laws) that we think connect different parts of the data (observations),  reasoning (logic) from the hypotheses to show that the known data is consistent (verification),  and then exploring consequences of the theory (predictions) that take us into areas we haven't yet observed - and finally we run experiments to confirm or disconfirm these predictions (empiricism), and the theories may typically allow us to build new constructs (apparatus and technology). 

Figuring out how to apply these theories and adapt these technologies to our needs is called applied science, while design and engineering take over the eventual building and ongoing manufacturing of the resulting products.

But when people believe their theories, that is a matter of faith not science, and many social models and theories are more like religions in terms of being believed with religious fervour and defining a prescriptive way of life. Unfortunately belief in Evolution also has more of the characteristics of religious belief than scientific empiricism - and that does more harm than good to the scientific case for Evolutionary Biology.

Popper vs Kuhn


This scientific method goes back millenia, to people like Leonardo da Vinci, Copernicus, Galileo, Kepler, Newton and so on. Some times new formalisms, new forms of mathematics are developed as part of this process - like the development of calculus by Newton. This leads also to the idea of pure and applied mathematics too.

The empirical method was very clearly formulated by Karl Popper, who characterized real science as developing theories, making predictions and testing them experimentally. He quite sharply delineated proper science as being capable of invalidation, and proper scientists as actively making predictions into the unknown that could potentially invalidate their theories.

It is anathema to actually try to bolster and maintain your theories without making such predictions and experiments, or in the face of contradictory evidence from the experiments.

Kuhn took a more practical approach - scientists in practice are human and tend to defend their ivory towers, patching theories while controlling who gets employed and who gets published to keep down outsiders with competing theories.  Basically abandoning a theoretical approach and adopting a new theory comes in one of two ways: a paradigm shift where the results and contradictions are too big to ignore; and dying out literally as the old vanguard passes away.

So how do we compare to theories. Again there are basically two ideas that go back millennia: the first relates directly to the empirical method - we take the two theories to points where they make different predictions, and perform experiments to see which (if any) predictions are borne out; or if we can't make such predictions, or the old theory has been patched to give the right results, then we use the parsimony criterion that the simples theory is best (Occam's Razor).

Interestingly, supervised Machine Learning works in a similar way, making changes in a model anytime it gets things wrong, until it is right on all the data - but in the end we could just remember all the data to be always right (instance/example based learning). But this has a danger of overfitting, and the simpler model is to be preferred - and we must also make sure we always test on unseen data to make sure we are not just overfitting to the noise, and eventually we must take the model to different places and different sources of data to make sure we aren't overfitting to artefacts of the way (who, what, when, where, why, how) we collected the data.

Chomsky: nature vs nurture


One good illustration of this is the question of whether language is learned or innate. This goes back decades, and in particular Noam Chomsky believed that language was inherently innate, with specific organs for things like syntax and phonology that were "as real as the heart or the liver".  But the experiments were not performed to verify this, nor were the biological predictions formalized.  Chomsky's Principles and Parameters theory was humbly known as standard theory in the 1970s and 1980s (with Chomsky regarded as the founder of standard linguistics by his followers). It was based on knowledge and patterns from all known languages, and could generally be massaged to fit the inconvenient data that sometimes emerged.

The contrary view is most clearly represented by Jean Piaget (known as the father of psycholinguistics) who studied how studied all aspects of how the child learned about his world, language and culture (publishing over 20 books on the experiments exploring different facets of his constructivist theory). Other important names on this side of the ledger include George Lakoff  (known as the father of cognitive linguistics) who emphasized the role of metaphor and analogy in the way language was learned and evolved. There is an excellent volume published in 1979 about the Debate between Chomsky and Piaget, and an excellent volume called Metaphors we live by published by Lakoff and Johnson in 1980.

Of course one way to explore this question empirically is to look at programming computers to learn the way a human baby does. David Powers and Chris Turk published Machine Learning of Natural Language in 1989 based on a decade of experimentation of this kind by Powers, building on Kenneth Pike's theories of phonology, tagmemic grammar and universals of human behaviour, as well as hypothesizing separate recognition and production grammars, grounding the language learner in a simulated robot world, and predicting things like mirror neurons – connecting this to Turk's idea of anticipated correction and providing a neurologically plausible computational basis for the emergent constructivist cognitive linguistics approach. 

In the 1980s, Cognitive Science emerged as an interdisciplinary group of disciplines as people realized that is was important to cross the disciplinary boundaries between linguistics, psychology and neuroscience, to connect to the theoretical explorations of philosophers, and to exploit the computational modelling capabilities of computers - that actually allowed cognitive and evolutionary theories to be tested in ways not hitherto possible. Moreover Cognitive Linguistics emerged during the course of the decade as a direct rebellion against linguistic theories that didn't believe in learning, with Lakoff's 1987 book Women, Fire and Dangerous Things being an important landmark in defining the emergent field.

In the 1990s, Luc Steels took this language learning approach in a new direction, looking at the way language is evolved by cooperating robots working in a physical environment. This led to exciting collaborative experiments in the area of robotic language games, and a whole new perspective on the nature of language.

In the 1990s, David Powers broadened out from a focus on syntax, semantics and ontology into exploring the emergence of phonemes and morphemes in text and speech, leading to a self-organized multimodal hierarchy of linguistic processing that automatically learned to parse from phonetic features all the way up to phrases and clauses.

In the 1990s Noam Chomsky abandoned his 'standard' P&P approach, publishing his new minimalist program around 1992. However massive divides persist in linguistics to this day, and computational linguistics has moved out of linguistics into computer science - losing and ignoring the traditional psychological and linguistic insights.

In the 21st century, academic scientists and university department have unfortunately gone back into their disciplinary boxes and ivory towers, while research in artificial intelligence has largely been driven by commercial considerations. The rapid expansion of information technology and black box approaches to  neural networks has left little room for students to be trained in the relevant cognitive science, or to learn the language and ethos of the other relevant disciplines.

Dawkins: Evolution vs God


The second illustration we will use is the treatment of evolution in science, including both formal scientific writing and the popular writing of esteemed scientists.

In the penultimate paragraph of the introductory chapter to his 2019 book "Outgrowing God",
Richard Dawkins writes "all I need to say at present is that evolution is a definite fact: we are cousins of chimpanzees, slightly more distant cousins of monkeys, very much more distant cousins of fish and so on." Is this what we would expect from a top scientist?

In his previous writings Dawkins refers to biblical stories and characters as myths, while other people from similar periods are treated as historical. In "Outgrowing God" he does seek to justfiy this view by referring to literary criticism of the historical documents, and hypotheses of assertions. In the end, he admits the possibility that Jesus actually existed (and notes that the gospels were written long after Jesus death, and that people "wrongly believe" they were written by the authors they are attributed too - ignoring the internal evidence of Luke and John in particular, that there were stories circulating from early times, and identifying themselves in their texts).

There is considerable support for believing that key biblical characters existed. To start with the most obvious and superficial: Christians incorporate the name of Christ, and Semites (semitic races) incorporate the name of Shem, reflecting traditions going back to the named figures, with two large racial groups tracing their roots to Abraham (through Ishmael and Isaac). Other key biblical figures interacted with key political figures of the time - and generally the bible's view of Jews and Christians is not always positive: it tends to be no holds barred in a way that speaks to their existence. In several cases there is more evidence than for other historical figures of the same era. Thus it is prejudicial to call these mythical and others historical.

There are no testable predictions and scientific experiments we can perform here, but nonetheless there is in all cases evidence we can weigh.

On the other hand, acknowledging these people actually existed doesn't of itself mean that God exists, created the universe, or is interested in mankind, or has sent a saviour – although it does suggest that there are some purportedly miraculous events in the historical records that otherwise need to be explained away.

The essential point here is that evolution is also a theory where it is difficult to make testable predictions. It should not be held as a matter of faith - to do so is religion not science.

Furthermore the theories of how particular animals might have evolved depends on myths called "just so stories" that take their name from Rudyard Kipling's (1902) Just So Stories for young children, stories like  How The Camel Got His Hump; How The Leopard Got His Spots; How The First Letter Was Written; How The Alphabet Was Made. These evolutionary "just so stories" are true myths, as nobody seriously believes that they represent actual historical events – although their authors hope there might be some similarity to what actually happened (but in some cases they seem more hysterical than historical).

One additional complication with dealing with evolution as a theory is that there is no well-defined theory, and indeed different people at different times mean different things by evolution.

Evolution vs Genetics


Charles Darwin knew all about selective breeding, that is artificial selection, and that is where the name came for his theory of natural selection. His contemporary, Gregor Mendel formally studied artificial selection and effectively predicted the discovery of genes and the idea of genetic crossover of the parents genes – however, Darwin may not have been aware of Mendel's contemporaneous work. It seems he did have the journal volume in which the paper appeared, but the pages in that copy had not been cut (although that doesn't necessarily mean he didn't hear about it on the scientific grapevine or have someone else show him their copy). 

Work and publication of Origin of the Species did make Darwin question his Christian faith, or at least orthodox versions of it, as well as gaining him the criticism of some elements of the church –despite withholding his discussion of mankind as "so surrounded with prejudices" (letter to Alfred Wallace). He, however, didn't use the word "evolution" till Descent of Man, which did address this application to mankind and human races (and indeed the one use of any version of the verb "evolve" came right at the end of the extant editions of Origin of the Species).

Natural selection as a building block of evolutionary theory is well established, and these days not particularly controversial – having the character of making predictions that have been confirmed.  Of course, there is an artificial component to all experiments, but rather than direct breeding it has been possible to explore the changes in certain species engendered by changing environmental conditions or translating them to a different environment and/or ecosystem.

Creation Accounts and Myths


It should be emphasized that many Christians (and people of other religions) have no particular problem with proposed artificial and natural selection mechanisms, and the genetic processes that lead to evolution of species to better fit their changing ecological niches. Although transmutation of species, or evolution of new species, has proven hard to demonstrate (in the sense that new phenotypes and genotypes can still interbreed).

But what of the the "myths" of the Bible, as Dawkins calls them: the "creation myths" and "genealogical myths". 

In many ways the Bible's "genealogical myths" are not much different from the "biological classifications" of Linnaeus.  The Linnaean taxonomy was a very important contribution, and the classifications did represent specific predictions about relatedness that have been tested (and much revised) based on genetic evidence. The family genealogies of the Bible did of course start off as oral history, and have been maintained more recently in written records.  Cluster Analysis and Principle Component Analysis of genome diversity across races is remarkably consistent with the biblical genealogies dating back to Noah, and it is also interesting to compare that with taxonomic/cluster analyses and geographical dispersion of linguistic diversity.

Genesis 1 and Genesis 2 actually provide two different accounts of creation - the first dealing with creation in its broader sense, culminating in the creation and dominion of mankind, while chapter 2 gives the story of Adam and Eve and lays the foundation for the fall into sin of Genesis 3 The first chapter has a somewhat poetic character and the seven days can be interpreted as eras (like the day of the dinosaur) and this is reflected elsewhere in the Bible (according to the book of Hebrews we are still in God's seventh day of rest). Similarly there is some evidence of editing of the lists of generations and choosing key figures to make a point. Matthew's grouping into three groups of fourteen generations from Abraham to David to Exile to Jesus is six of seven "weeks".  We are still in the seventh "day" of creation, the day of rest, according to the book of Hebrews, and we are evidently in the seventh set of seven "generations" according to Matthew. In fact, Genesis 2:4-5 uses the same word "day" to encapsulate the entire period of creation up to the point where man was created.

The Genesis 1 account thus doesn't purport to be day by day history, but reading through it sounds remarkably like a bystander viewpoint on different stages of creation. Many Jews, Moslems and Christians will tend to believe that it is not intended to be taken literally - and this view was emerging around the time that Darwin published Origin of the Species and accounts for the less than expected criticism across the church - in a sense it was overshadowed by the more general controversy over literary criticism of the biblical texts.

The Genesis 2 account reads very much like a just-so-story or fable aimed at teaching a particular lesson, although in the bible many such stories are painted as literally happening, sometimes there is debate as to they are meant to be interpreted literally or as parables. But in a sense this is irrelevant, as an omnipotent God could choose to teach Adam his place in the world, and that of his wife/woman (no separate words in Hebrew or Greek), by literally enacting this Adam's Rib story. 

The Genesis 7 account of Noah and the flood is also open to interpretation. In particular what is meant by "world" or "earth".

Here it is important to remember that when it was composed, the most it could be expected to represent was the "known inhabitd world" centring around the meeting point of Africa, Europe and Asia (the Middle East): the "new world" had yet to be discovered, and even that was just the Americas - the southern continents of Australia and Antartica are not part of either the old or the new world! Furthermore, the word "earth" (the expression in this chapter is "face of the earth" or "face of the ground") and can refer to the dirt and soil that is the foundation for life. There is no claim or words that imply "global flood", and a global flood wouldn't have been needed to wipe out mankind when still confined to the region of the Africa–Middle-East conjunction (actually part of Africa until relatively recently).

Similar considerations apply to the Genesis 11 account of the Tower of Babel and the emergence of different languages. Interestingly, God decides to "confuse their language" and does this by "scattering them abroad from there over the face of all the earth" (diaspora).

Initially, that need not have included crossing oceans to other continents, and humans clearly did migrate across land bridges and cross rivers and straits, and 60-70,000 years ago evidently accidentally or intentionally reached Australia without a need to cross more than 100km of water – and indeed the evidence suggests that the earliest Australian aboriginals were also able to cross to Tasmania, which was also accessible via a land bridge even as little as 30,000 years ago. Indeed these Tasmanian aboriginals seem to be genetically divergent from those that arrived in the last 10,000 years and one way of another the earlier race disappeared from the mainland. Even today, crossing from Siberia to Alaska requires bridging only around 40km of the Bering Strait, and there is evidence of accidental crossings of animals on ice floes.

Evolution of the Gene - the Science and the Fiction


In general, evolutionary theory is itself highly dependent on myths and just-so-stories to illustrate how things might have happened, although without the miraculous element of the Adam's Rib account. Furthermore there is a problem with evolutionary being "saltatory", that is jumping faster than evolutionists can easily account for - and the flipside of this is "missing links". But this doesn't mean evolution of the species or of mankind in such an undirected way is wrong, just that it is unproven - although it does beg further assumptions: e.g. the assumption of some kind of big-bang to primordial soup starting point (or similar). Of course their are other possible assumptions, e.g. the assumption of a God that directs the course of speciation – God could potentially directly reuse (genetic) components of earlier species and/or could control environmental conditions to more indirectly direct the course of evolution.

Many Christians accept this kind of post-genetic evolution in some form, but with God playing a role at points in the story: theistic evolution. The case for atheistic evolution is, however, not helped by its frequent personification as Evolution with a capital-E in the role of intelligent agent.

Knowledge of breeding and artificial selection techniques, and indeed theories that predicted some sort of genetic basis for speciation, were already extant in Darwin's time – and the predictions often did not tend to go beyond what was already known to be possible, and as noted above involved direct or indirect manipulation of either the breeding or the ecosystem.

Furthermore the big question that is somewhat less in focus, but nonetheless fundamental to big-E Evolution, is how the gene evolved, as well as related questions such as how and why sexual dimorphism evolved.

And taking a step back from that, there is the question of how  DNA, RNA, proteins and the like emerged from the mythical primordial slime.  Some relatively simple organic molecules (components of DNA, RNA and proteins) have emerged in test tube experiments, but we are a long way from explaining this.

From a science fiction perspective, if there are environmental conditions and pressures that could evolve such complex molecules, does this entail that compatible molecules will evolve in different environments (different planets in different galaxies).  SF theories of parallel evolution explicitly assume so - and it is not an unreasonable expectation of this kind of pre-genetic evolution.

But interbreeding between species on Earth is not possible (by definition of species), so interbreeding between earth and interplanetary or intergalactic species is also very unlikely without either some prior contact (genetic exchange/panspermia) or some kind of deliberate engineering (genetic manipulation/splicing) or some kind of common creator (intelligent design/theistic evolution).


My Books

So it is not likely that "parallel evolution" could lead to compatible species on other worlds.  Quite apart from the general question of "life" on other worlds, the inability of species to interbreed even on earth makes that difficult without some sort of genetic manipulation. But this is not the only questions - can we even expect to eat the plants and animals on another earth-like planet? Maybe! 

The interesting question of compatibility at the level of DNA and RNA is one which is much more feasible as they are the only molecular building blocks we know of that can before their various genetic and messenger functions - my Paradisi Chronicles Casindra Lost series finds an affirmative answer to this on New Eden!


My Paradisi Lost stories

My Casindra Lost stories feature genetic engineering and an emergent AI 'Al' and a captain who is reluctantly crewed with him on a rather long journey to another galaxy - just the two of them, and some cats... There's another one, 'Alice' that emerges more gradually in the Moraturi arc. The Paradisi colonization aims to preserve the pristine ecosystems of New Eden, restrict mining to the other planets and asteroids of the system, and genetically modify people to suit the ecosystem rather than overwhelm it with introduced species: https://paradisichronicles.wordpress.com/

Casindra Lost
Kindle ebook (mobi) edition ASIN: B07ZB3VCW9 — tiny.cc/AmazonCL
Kindle paperback edition ISBN-13: 978-1696380911 justified Iowan OS
Kindle enlarged print edn ISBN-13: 978-1708810108 justified Times NR 16
Kindle large print edition ISBN-13: 978-1708299453 ragged Trebuchet 18

Moraturi Lost
Kindle ebook (mobi) edition ASIN: B0834Z8PP8 – tiny.cc/AmazonML
Kindle paperback edition ISBN-13: 978-1679850080 justified Iowan OS 

Moraturi Ring
Kindle ebook (mobi) edition ASIN: B087PJY7G3 – tiny.cc/AmazonMR
Kindle paperback edition ISBN-13: 979-8640426106 justified Iowan OS 

Author/Series pages and Awards

Tuesday, October 15, 2019

The moral agent/being/entity

Whereas Turing asked "Can a computer think?" and Searle changed this to "Can a machine have a mind?" another question that people raise about AIs is whether they can have a sense of right or wrong, whether they can be regarded as moral agents.

A simple definition of morality, like conscience, might hinge on having a sense of right or wrong. But this begs the question of whether everyone has the same sense of right or wrong? Irrespective of how that is answered, there is still the question of where morality comes from...

Some define moral agents as having a responsibility to not to cause unjustified harm - but this gets us to the area of ethical dilemma where every action I take does somebody harm. It also raises the additional question of what is meant by justified or unjustified - I am very good at justifying my actions. Harm is often these days expressed in terms of violation of basic rights - but these are also malleable. I've recently seen both internet access and mobile phone coverage cited as a basic human right, for example.

The key question, however, may be who can be held to be responsible for their actions? Animals? Adults? Children? Companies? Computers?

And then at what point in their development does an entity become a moral agent who is held accountable for their actions? And until then who is responsible? Their creator/parents/programmers/directors? And what does this then say about the morality of limited liability companies?


Two definitions of morality


Basically it seems that our concept of morality has two separate aspects, or even two alterate definitions. I will paint a dichotomy of intrinsic versus extrinsic, while others would make a divide into descriptive and normative.

The intrinsic form corresponds roughly to conscience, and refers to a code of conduct that would be accepted as normative by all rational persons. This raises the question of what is meant by rationality (arguably computers think more rationally than people, and perhaps we think adults are more rational than babies - so this means we have degrees of rationality). A second question revolves around the cultural, social, religious and political background in which the individual has been raised and educated, even brain-washed. Is it really intrinsic when it is influenced by such external sources? How can we tease out the intrinsic morality when we are all inculcated with with behavioural codes from the time we are born?

The extrinsic form acknowledges that morality is externally imposed, which may be described explicitly in the form of the laws of a state or the rules of etiquette or the doctrine of a religion or the platform of a party or the agenda of a lobby group. To the extent that all of these are a function of people's beliefs there is no real difference except for the rigour with which the code of conduct is enforced. Break the law and you can be jailed or executed, offend against a dominant etiquette or minority political correctness and you can expect social ostracism, break ranks with the party and you can be thrown out, maintain solidarity and create alliances and maybe you can force your beliefs into law.

Much of modern morality and democratic law is shaped by these alliances - minority groups who believe strongly in one tenet and don't have an opinion about others questions can combine together with others – supporting platforms that are not incompatible and that they don't particularly care about one way or the other. Thus minority lobby groups can gain the power they need to change both formal law and social norms. The apathetic majority will go along with most things, but the individual and apolitical groupings have no power unless they betray their own moral integrity and support aims of others for the sake of getting reciprocal support for their own agenda, defining a new extrinsic moral substrate for their society. Of course loyalty becomes paramount in maintaining the bargain inherent in any such alliance.

Note that these extrinsic ideas of morality all hinge on subjective belief rather than objective truth. They thus come under a broad definition of faith, whether it is faith in democracy, belief in a particular way of life, adherence to a particular scientific standpoint, or trust in an all-powerful God.

The Christian Bible, perhaps surprisingly, supports both the intrinsic and the extrinsic idea of morality. Paul in Acts 17 and Romans 1 regards knowledge ideas about both God and what is right as being obvious, with ignorance of the law being an excuse that is no longer tolerated, with recognition of both the true God and true morality as being corrupted as we rejected God and turned to worship ourselves and our own creations.


Five flavours of morality


Hadit's Moral Foundations Theory actually distinguishes five flavours of morality relating to care/vulnerability, fairness/exploitation, loyalty/treason, authority/hierarchy and sanctity/threat. How much each of these is important is very much a matter of politics, with different shades tending to emphasizes different flavours of morality.

Of course, for such religiously political groups, fairness tends to be defined in terms of authority and loyalty, and answers to the questions of what is fair and who is worthy of care are indeed the defining features of the different political groups and lobbyist agendas. It is certainly the basis for the changing nature of ideas of basic human rights.

The Christian Morality impinges directly on this. Jesus' story of the good Samaritan in Luke 10 was offered as an answer to this question of who is worthy of care. Jesus' story of the sheep and the goats in Matthew 25 paints judgement as hinging on giving care to those who need it. Most of our current law and morality, as well as scientific and technological progress, derives from Jesus' message of love. It was Christians who fought to abolish slavery, who founded orphanages, hospitals and universities. Of course not everyone claiming the name of Christ acts in accord with these principles.

Sin in the Bible is intrinsically rejecting the authority of God, while love and loyalty to fellow Christians/Jews is also stressed - but the good neighbour/good Samaritan and woman at the well stories specifically extend beyond this to the Samaritans, shunned by the Jews. Paul regarded himself as being specifically an apostle to the Gentiles, the non-Jews. Fairness was also very much in scope both in the Jewish Law, the first five books of the Christian Bible, as well as the Prophets and Jesus' parables and Paul's: the rich as exploiters of the poor is a theme throughout the Bible.

If an intrinsic view of morality has elements of socialization and indoctrination that provide at least some extrinsic component to morality, where does this external concept of morality come from? The biblical view is that it comes from our creator, and is thus also evident in the world that he created and the consciences he gave us.

As "enlightened" humans we prefer to believe in "Science" and "Evolution" rather than "God" and "Sin". But Romans 1 describes such people as "futile in their thinking, their senseless minds darkened".

These science and religion elements naturally clash in my stories, but for now my purpose is to inform a discussion of Artificial Intelligence.

So what about AIs? Does their morality come from their creator?


The morality of Artificial Intelligence


We now look at two ways in which morality relates to AI.

The first is the one we have just reached. What does it mean for an AI to be moral? Is being a moral agent something we can expect of an AI? Does being a moral agent require being able to think? Does being conscious require having a mind and a conscience?

For now let us assume that it is (or will be) possible to build (or evolve) a sentient rational self-determining agent with the ability to look into themselves as well as into the world, with an ability to make judgements based both on the basis of explicit rules and laws as well as on the basis of general principles of avoiding harm - this was indeed the basis of Asimov's three laws of robotics. But let us define three somewhat more fundamental laws:


  • If the AI is not sentient, then it can't make decisions about a world it cannot sense.
  • If the AI is not rational, then it can't reason about law or harm in a specific situation.
  • If the AI is not self-determining, then it can't be responsible for what it does.
In all of these cases, the responsibility and accountability seems to rest with the programmers and engineers who create the AI and determine how it should be used: it is just a tool, and potentially a weapon, like any other.

One of the characteristics of real AI is learning – we learn about the physical and social world we are situated in. Thus AI's behaviour is not determined just by their initial programming, but on the basis of learning by experience. If they are trusted to interact with the world, gain this experience, reason for themselves, and make their own decisions – then what emerges will be a form of intelligence beyond the programmed weak AI (GOFAI or Good Old Fashioned Artificial Intelligence). Their sentient sense or feel of the world and themselves also means that they have feelings.

Of course, we probably will want to let them grow bit by bit, trusting them more and more as the show themselves worthy of that trust.

This is what we do every day with our children, as they develop their social, linguistic, reasoning and ethical capacities.

Initially we provide constraints for our children, we also provide the extrinsic code of conduct - and punish them when they deviate from it. We do something similar when training a dog...

Is this something we should do with AIs?

This leads me to the second way in which morality relates to AIs. Is it moral for us to create and control AIs? Is it moral for us to destroy them or to wipe their memories?

In fact, if you regard yourself as essentially a machine, a computer, then EU laws mean that on leaving the EU, or on request by me, or after a predetermined period of time, you must wipe all trace of me from your memory. However, the distributed nature of memory in neural networks, biological and artificial, means that every person you have experienced affects your very understanding of what it means to be that type of person or a member of their profession, of what it means to do the various things they did, to carry out your profession.

The same applies to an AI – so this kind of law will hold back the development of true AI which depends on this building up of their intelligence based on the entirety of their experience.

I think this kind of data privacy law is immoral!

Who made privacy a basic human right anyway?

Incidentally, by definition, a machine is an artefact created to perform a specific task, and a computer is a machine created to perform computational tasks. Now do you think you are a machine or a computer? 


Or are we all just a biological accident of evolution?

The morality of Evolution


Darwin is known for the law of "survival of the fittest" which remain at the core of modern evolutionary theory, as well as at the core of the computational intelligence approaches to evolutionary optimization, genetic programming, etc.

So if we are just a biological accident of evolution, how do we relate our ideas of morality to the law of the jungle, the law of "survival of the fittest"?

There are many theories to reconcile these contradictory ideas.

Richard Dawkins Selfish Gene relates to the idea of preserving our genes (and cultural memes) - first priority all our genes (ourselves) and the half that is in our zygotes (our children) as well as the smaller fractions that are in other family members, other members of our tribe, and other members of our race.

So why champion unrelated people, let alone other races, at the expense of our own family and culture?

A more traditional argument is Universal Hedonism. Hedonism is about seeking our own pleasure and wellbeing (and our qualia equate that with pleasure versus pain). Civilization is about people coming together into bigger and bigger communities (civil is the adjective for things relating to cities). Instead of doing everything ourselves for just ourselves (and our families) we provide our needs as a group, and this leads to efficiencies of scales, allows the development of experts with better skills than a "jack of all trades master of none", and requires the development of trade, leading eventually to a medium of exchange (money, credit).

Money is something that you actually endow with an agreed (although ideally appreciating) value. Credit is actually when you trust someone to repay you later – and modern fiat currency is actually not really money but credit: trust in a government both to do the right thing in terms of using the credit, and to survive long enough to actually do so (ideally at equivalent or better value).

Under Universal Hedonism, what we are trying to maximize the wellbeing of is not just ourselves, but our interdependent society. Morality in this view, like credit, is essentially a form of trust.

The question of AI's moral agency and rights, and how we should interact with them and treat them generally, is obviously going to come up in the Paradisi Chronicles – in particular, in Casindra Lost where SS Casindra's crew consists of a solitary human captain, an emergent AI, and a growing number of critters of various sorts.



My Paradisi Lost stories

My Casindra Lost stories feature an emergent AI 'Al' and a captain who is reluctantly crewed with him on a rather long journey to another galaxy - just the two of them, and some cats... There's another one, 'Alice' that emerges more gradually in the Moraturi arc.

Casindra Lost
Kindle ebook (mobi) edition ASIN: B07ZB3VCW9 — tiny.cc/AmazonCL
Kindle paperback edition ISBN-13: 978-1696380911 justified Iowan OS
Kindle enlarged print edn ISBN-13: 978-1708810108 justified Times NR 16
Kindle large print edition ISBN-13: 978-1708299453 ragged Trebuchet 18

Moraturi Lost
Kindle ebook (mobi) edition ASIN: B0834Z8PP8 – tiny.cc/AmazonML
Kindle paperback edition ISBN-13: 978-1679850080 justified Iowan OS 

Moraturi Ring
Kindle ebook (mobi) edition ASIN: B087PJY7G3 – tiny.cc/AmazonMR
Kindle paperback edition ISBN-13: 979-8640426106 justified Iowan OS 

Author/Series pages and Awards

Monday, October 14, 2019

Martian or Venusian, gender or sex


Recently John Gray's classic "Men are from Mars, Women are from Venus"1 was featured as a Kindle Daily Deal - and as I write it is still available at a discounted price from all the Amazon sites. Back when it first came out in 1992, it made a big impression - I heard about it in multiple contexts, but didn't think I needed to buy it.

I have now bought the book and am currently reading it. However, in some ways it flies in the face of what we are currently taught about sex and gender, and it thus has its critics. Wikipedia reports some of this... 

For example, Michael Kimmel "contends that the perceived differences between men and women are ultimately a social construction, and that socially and politically, men and women want the same things"; Julia Wood feels "the view that men are from Mars and women Venus paints the differences between the two sexes as too extreme. The two sexes are different, but are not so different that we cannot understand each other.";  Erina MacGeorge says "books like John Gray's Men are From Mars and Women are From Venus … tell men that being masculine means dismissing feelings and downplaying problems. That isn't what most men do, and it isn't good for either men or women." Bobbi Carothers and Harry Reis assert that "contrary to the assertions of pop psychology titles like Men Are From Mars, Women Are From Venus, it is untrue that men and women think about their relationships in qualitatively different ways."

Some of the comments could be triggered by just reading the title.1  But you shouldn't judge a book by its cover, or even by its title - although we do that every time we buy a book as all we have to go on are the author, title and blurb  – and the associations we make with the cover image and format. 

For some of these critics, I do find it hard to believe they have actually read the book. For some, the comments simply fly in the face of reality.

Differences between men and women are a social construction?


Differences between men and women are deeply physical, and physically obvious.  This does not just extend to body shapes and reproductive organs, but to the brain itself - the apparent seat of the cognitive and emotional differences that are at the heart of Gray's book. For example, there are differences in the corpus callosum, the nerve bundle that connects to the two halves of the brain. There is greater connectivity between the left brain and the right brain in women.  There are differences in how much of each side of the brain is involved in different cognitive tasks, including speech processing. There are also difference relating to being artistic or musical.

What are political and social constructions are the various ideas of gender, including especially those that have emerged since the mid-1950s. Gender was always a social construct, but one that showed itself in language, with different languages having different grammatical genders, that do not in general correspond to natural gender or sex (e.g. girls and babies are neuter in German). Other words must also metaphorically map to linguistic genders, and George Lakoff discusses what this reveals about us in a book whose title relates to a gender class in one language: "Women, Fire, and Dangerous Things".

The idea of "political correctness" is also a social construct, and the way it emerges in different countries is a function of the gender system in their languages. Often the push of "political correctness" is in different directions across countries — because whatever we currently do is wrong.  Or we recognize inequities in our culture and attribute them fairly or unfairly to language usage. Where the language has stronger gender, but professions have a particular gender, the genders tend to be differentiated.  Where the language has weak gender (e.g. just natural gender based on sex and no common gender) then there is a push to neutral ways of expressing things, but with the issue that calling a person "it" doesn't sound right (and may be offensive).

While "political correctness" does force us to look closely at our linguistic, cultural and social assumptions and biases, it is interesting that the strong advocates tend to impute offence to others, even when the "offended" person has not felt offended and the "offensive" person was not being offensive - they are both just using their language they way it is.

Interestingly in Old English the form nearest in pronunciation to "he" was feminine singular, but also used as a plural. By the time the printing press was invented and William Caxton sought to standardize English, he was faced with a mix of dialects and standardized the modern set of pronouns and modern English spelling in a way that provided more clarity than the underlying dialects - and Caxton himself is documented as using the plural pronoun ("they/them") as a common gender singular.

Men and women can't understand each other but think in qualitatively different ways?


This is not so much the message of Gray's book as the starting point.  In fact, the thesis of the book is that men and women can learn to understand each other, and right from the start of the book he emphasizes that men and women can at times "think" in ways that reflect the opposite sex's characteristic way of thinking - and encourages people to embrace both sides of their nature.

In the end, the research about actual sexual differences in how we think and operate does not suggest a dichotomy - thinking one way or the other - but a distribution.  Think of two overlapping normal (Bell) curves with the female distribution pushed towards the expressive/emotional end and the male distribution pushed towards the cognitive/problem-solver end. There is a 68% probability mass associated with the centre part of the normal curve (one standard deviation each way, between the inflection points where it changes from curving down to curving up). This 68% (or "two-thirds" or "close to 70%") actually corresponds to the typical numbers of people that fit into the male/female "stereotypes" in the various studies.

One way of interpreting this is that some people tend to the outlier regions one way or the other - and this is probably related to the proliferation of genders.  But another aspect to this is that each individual has both emotional and cognitive dimensions and will at different times move away from the central region of the curve towards the norm for the opposite sex.

Indeed, this is what Gray tries to train us to do.

As for me, I don't like being put in a box - I feel that all that gender politics is doing is creating more boxes and more differences between people.  And such differences and politics breed dissension not peace.

People are scared to object to their new boxes, or to appear unenlightened by retaining their traditional culture, language and values. Discrimination used to be a positive word, but in my lifetime it has become a negative word.

We have lost freedom of speech. People are being forced to act and speak the way the gender left is forcing them to - at the risk of their jobs, or even their physical freedom, if they don't. And often it is just acting.


How should we write about people?



The gender left tries to force authors to write about people they way they want us to write about them. And by they I mean the "lobbyists". The political correctness movement extends this also to how we write about various minority groups, as well as how we write about people with various disabilities, or people who are diagnosed with various mental health issues. This itself is another problem with labels, and often the diagnosis has no medical basis but is based on putative symptoms mapped to a putative spectrum - and then labels attached to anyone anywhere along the spectrum tend to become stereotypes we apply to people and to our fictional characters.

My characters are based on my experience of the real world and real people.  Although labels may be applied in my fiction, they are not applied by me as author, but by characters who like to put people in boxes - they should always be treated as being in scare quotes. So people in my stories might get particular gender or spectrum labels attached to them in your mind, or in another character's mind or speech or report. 

But people and characters should always be dealt with as individuals based on who they are, not based on labels and boxes and stereotypes.

  1. John Gray (1992). Men Are from Mars, Women Are from Venus: A Practical Guide for Improving Communication and Getting What You Want in Your Relationships: How to Get What You Want in Your Relationships.
  2. George Lakoff (1987). Women, Fire, and Dangerous Things: What Categories Reveal About the Mind.
  3. Wikipedia (various) - see articles on gender, he, she, they, common pronouns, corpus callosum and the above books.

How should we write about non-humans?


What about when the characters are not people but aliens from a distant galaxy? or AIs that we have constructed ourselves, or at least bootstrapped in the image of our ourselves and let take on, and evolve, a life of their own.

In my science fiction stories, AIs have different levels based on their capabilities and responsibilities, and they are assigned, or choose, their gender based on feelings about their appropriate gender identity. They are given or choose their own name based on similar considerations. 


For example  Al on SS Casindra likes the way his name looks like AI (or is it the other way round) and relates to both Alan Turing and Clark/2001's HAL.  Later we learn that his original designation was Alpha (but he doesn't acknowledge that this had any influence on his choice of name).  Similarly on SS Moraturi we eventually find that the level 3 AI is Beta, but in a way similar to the way we get our nicknames, she becomes Betty.


My Paradisi Stories

My Casindra Lost stories feature an emergent AI 'Al' and a captain who is reluctantly crewed with him on a rather long journey to another galaxy - just the two of them, and some cats... There's another one, 'Alice' that emerges more gradually in the Moraturi arc.

Casindra Lost
Kindle ebook (mobi) edition ASIN: B07ZB3VCW9 — tiny.cc/AmazonCL
Kindle paperback edition ISBN-13: 978-1696380911 justified Iowan OS
Kindle enlarged print edn ISBN-13: 978-1708810108 justified Times NR 16
Kindle large print edition ISBN-13: 978-1708299453 ragged Trebuchet 18

Moraturi Lost
Kindle ebook (mobi) edition ASIN: B0834Z8PP8 – tiny.cc/AmazonML
Kindle paperback edition ISBN-13: 978-1679850080 justified Iowan OS 

Moraturi Ring
Kindle ebook (mobi) edition ASIN: B087PJY7G3 – tiny.cc/AmazonMR
Kindle paperback edition ISBN-13: 979-8640426106 justified Iowan OS 

Author/Series pages and Awards